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Post by OhMy on Oct 22, 2024 12:12:57 GMT -5
What manner of absurd fuckery is this? There are many people who will vote against Musk, just on general principles. I'll be voting later today ... get it over with. I am sure Kamala is happy to receive a racist's vote.
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Post by JS84 on Oct 22, 2024 12:18:38 GMT -5
Well you asked about the polls, before you checked them. Then you edited your comments to retract the polls comment after checking them. I cited the polls from the site you all praised when Cad shared it. But go on.
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 12:20:25 GMT -5
Is a nine point margin of error a lot?
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 12:23:51 GMT -5
Well you asked about the polls, before you checked them. Then you edited your comments to retract the polls comment after checking them. I cited the polls from the site you all praised when Cad shared it. But go on. ^ What did the poll you cite specifically predict about a red wave and the 2022 midterms? What did most other polls predict, and what was the reality? It's not a trick question, nor hard to answer. I already know the answer, but I'm waiting to see your predictably intellectually dishonest spin. Maybe you'll surprise us all with a shred of reality and actual history.
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Post by JS84 on Oct 22, 2024 12:31:34 GMT -5
I don't know what the Hill Decision Desk HQ predicted in 2022. I don't follow left leaning publications. I have been sharing the polls from the Hill as Cad shared the link stating it was an accurate model. So I went along with the polls you all seemed to approve of.
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 12:37:36 GMT -5
I don't know what the Hill Decision Desk HQ predicted in 2022. I don't follow left leaning publications. I have been sharing the polls from the Hill as Cad shared the link stating it was an accurate model. So I went along with the polls you all seemed to approve of. The only time I may seem to approve of a poll is to show that putting credence in polls is a fools errand. They are rarely right, and as tech changes polling is falling behind. I'll call you on your landline to further discuss if you'd like.
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Post by cadman on Oct 22, 2024 12:41:51 GMT -5
I think Trump will win the electoral college at this point. He might even get 291 votes. But he will lose the popular vote again. But the swing states are all too close for anyone to know the outcome at this point. This election is probably not going to be final until the middle of November.
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Post by cadman on Oct 22, 2024 12:54:13 GMT -5
I don't know what the Hill Decision Desk HQ predicted in 2022. I don't follow left leaning publications. I have been sharing the polls from the Hill as Cad shared the link stating it was an accurate model. So I went along with the polls you all seemed to approve of. I actually follow RealClear and FiveThirtyEight and look for the trends among the same pollsters that have been doing this awhile and ignoring the R and D Leaning polls as much as possible. The Hill's analysis of current pollings seem to reflect the current trends and I think is a good site for analysis. I do watch Bovada as a pure betting website to see what the betters think. Polymarkets and Kalshi are bet trading sites and looking at the past elections, they have a lot of movement in the final weeks as traders try to buy and sell at a profit rather than wait to see the outcome. I think a lot of people short their bets as the odds change to make a profit and aren't in it to win the bet or even care who wins. It's about predicting where the market will go, nto where it will settle. All that said, and Bimini hates hearing this as I have said it several times already, it appears Trump is going to win this election.
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 12:55:35 GMT -5
I think Trump will win the electoral college at this point. He might even get 291 votes. But he will lose the popular vote again. But the swing states are all too close for anyone to know the outcome at this point. This election is probably not going to be final until the middle of November. What makes you think that polling has gotten any better since they were all so off in the three examples I listed, which are the latest available?
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 12:57:45 GMT -5
The "red wave" predicted for the 2022 U.S. midterm elections didn't materialize, surprising many pollsters and political analysts. Several factors contributed to polling inaccuracies and the eventual outcome, where Democrats performed better than expected.
Here are some key reasons and insights regarding which polls and predictions missed the mark:
Generic Ballot Polls: Many national polls that measure the "generic ballot" (asking voters whether they would vote for a Republican or Democrat in Congress) were off in predicting a strong Republican advantage. Polling organizations like Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Reports, and some other right-leaning pollsters forecasted a larger Republican lead than actually occurred. Trafalgar, known for its emphasis on "shy Trump voters," seemed to overestimate Republican turnout.
State-Level Polls: Several state-level polls in key battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona missed the strength of Democratic candidates. In Pennsylvania, for example, many polls showed a tight Senate race between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R), with some even giving Oz the edge. Fetterman ended up winning by a significant margin. Similarly, in Arizona, polls underestimated Democratic Senator Mark Kelly's strength against Blake Masters.
Polling Aggregators: RealClearPolitics (RCP) and FiveThirtyEight also compiled polls that showed expectations of a Republican wave, especially in House races. While FiveThirtyEight hedged its predictions with a broader range of outcomes, the consensus view that Republicans were favored in both the House and Senate didn’t fully account for the relatively weak performance Republicans had.
Overestimated Republican Turnout: Polls underestimated the Democratic base’s turnout and overestimated the appeal of Republican candidates, especially those backed by Donald Trump. Many Trump-endorsed candidates underperformed, contributing to the failure of the red wave to materialize. Exit polls indicated that the overturning of Roe v. Wade and concerns about the preservation of democracy motivated Democratic voters, factors that some polls didn't fully capture.
YouGov and other centrist or left-leaning pollsters had slightly better predictions in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Democrats exceeded expectations. Still, even their models did not anticipate the full extent of Democratic resilience.
The 2022 election served as a reminder that polling, while useful, has limits, especially when voter turnout models and public sentiment on key issues like abortion rights and election integrity aren't fully captured. The polls generally failed to account for these dynamics, leading to widespread predictions of a Republican surge that never came to fruition.
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Post by JS84 on Oct 22, 2024 12:58:01 GMT -5
They are rarely right, and as tech changes polling is falling behind. I'll call you on your landline to further discuss if you'd like. This may be one of the only topics we agree on.
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 12:59:21 GMT -5
Polling in elections after the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, showed significant shifts, especially in how issues surrounding abortion rights affected voter turnout and candidate support. Here's how polling changed or was impacted in key post-Dobbs elections:
1. Kansas Abortion Referendum (August 2022): One of the first major tests post-Dobbs was in Kansas, where voters overwhelmingly rejected a ballot measure that would have removed the constitutional right to abortion in the state. Pre-election polling had shown a closer race, with some polls indicating a near-even split or a slight advantage for the anti-abortion side. However, the final result was a 59-41% victory for the pro-choice side, highlighting that polls had underestimated the strength of pro-choice sentiment.
Polling Miss: Polls missed capturing the intensity of voter turnout, particularly among women and younger voters, galvanized by the Supreme Court decision. Many pollsters also struggled with likely voter models, underestimating turnout from groups mobilized by the abortion issue.
2. Midterm Elections (November 2022): In the wake of Dobbs, abortion became a central issue in many key Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. Polls did not fully capture the impact of abortion as a motivating factor for Democratic voters, particularly in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Michigan: Polls showed Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer with a lead, but her margin of victory was larger than expected. The state's referendum to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution passed comfortably, with polling underestimating support. Pennsylvania: Abortion rights were a key issue in the Senate race, where Democrat John Fetterman defeated Mehmet Oz. Polls had shown a close race, but Fetterman won by a larger margin than expected, aided by high turnout from pro-choice voters. Polling Miss: In several of these races, pollsters either underestimated Democratic turnout or the extent to which abortion would drive voters to the polls, particularly women, young voters, and suburban voters.
3. Impact on Voter Demographics: After Dobbs, polls began to reflect shifting voter priorities. Exit polls in the 2022 midterms indicated that for many voters, abortion was a top issue, rivaling or surpassing economic concerns. This was especially pronounced among women, particularly younger and suburban women, who turned out in higher numbers than expected in some key states.
Polling Adjustments: Pollsters had to adjust their models to better capture the post-Dobbs dynamics, particularly as abortion rights became a mobilizing issue for Democrats. However, in several key states and races, polls still underestimated the intensity of the response from pro-choice voters.
4. Post-Dobbs Polling Trends: Shift in Importance of Abortion: In national and state-level polling, abortion consistently ranked as a top issue for Democratic voters post-Dobbs. Polls like those from Pew Research, Gallup, and others showed a significant uptick in the number of voters who said that abortion was a key issue affecting their vote, especially among women. State-Level Polling on Abortion Measures: In states considering abortion-related referendums (e.g., Michigan and Kentucky), polling showed growing support for pro-choice positions. However, in several instances, polls underestimated the eventual margins of victory for abortion-rights advocates. Conclusion: Polling in elections following the Dobbs decision faced challenges in accurately capturing voter sentiment, particularly on the issue of abortion. In several races, particularly those with direct abortion-related measures or candidates taking strong positions, polls underestimated the mobilizing power of the issue, especially for pro-choice voters. Pollsters are likely continuing to adjust their models to better account for the post-Dobbs political landscape, where abortion has become a more salient and decisive issue for many voters.
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 13:01:04 GMT -5
Several right-wing or conservative-leaning polling firms were notably off in their predictions for the 2022 midterm elections, especially in their forecasts of a "red wave" that failed to materialize. These pollsters often showed stronger-than-expected Republican support, leading to significant polling errors. Here are some of the right-wing polling firms that were furthest off in their predictions:
1. Trafalgar Group Misses: Trafalgar is a right-leaning pollster that has gained attention in recent years for its focus on identifying "shy" conservative voters. However, in 2022, Trafalgar's predictions overstated Republican strength in key Senate and gubernatorial races. Some of their most significant misses include:
Pennsylvania Senate Race: Trafalgar predicted a tight race between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz, with Oz slightly favored in some final polls. Fetterman ended up winning by nearly 5 points. Arizona Senate Race: Trafalgar also showed Republican Blake Masters with more support than he ultimately garnered in the race against Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, who won by a larger margin than polls suggested. Georgia Senate Race: Trafalgar's polls showed Herschel Walker (R) performing better than he did in reality. Raphael Warnock (D) won in both the general election and the runoff, despite Trafalgar's optimistic projections for Walker. Analysis: Trafalgar often leans heavily into models that try to capture "hidden" conservative voters, but in 2022, this approach appeared to overestimate Republican turnout and enthusiasm, particularly in battleground states.
2. Rasmussen Reports Misses: Rasmussen, another right-leaning pollster, tends to show more favorable results for Republicans than many other polling firms. Leading up to the 2022 midterms, Rasmussen predicted strong Republican gains, particularly in the generic congressional ballot. Generic Ballot: Rasmussen consistently showed Republicans with a strong lead, sometimes by as much as 5-7 points. However, Democrats performed better than expected in both House and Senate races, and Republicans only narrowly took control of the House. Senate Races: Rasmussen, like Trafalgar, also overestimated Republican performance in Senate races like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. Analysis: Rasmussen's methodology and weighting often favor conservative respondents, which may explain why their polls skewed more toward Republicans, especially in a cycle where voter sentiment around abortion and democracy issues boosted Democratic turnout. 3. InsiderAdvantage Misses: InsiderAdvantage, another right-leaning pollster, had several notable misses in key Senate and gubernatorial races. Similar to Trafalgar and Rasmussen, their models showed stronger support for Republicans than what was reflected in the actual results.
Georgia Senate Race: InsiderAdvantage showed Herschel Walker with a slight lead over Raphael Warnock in their late October polling, which ultimately didn't hold up. Warnock won the runoff comfortably. Pennsylvania Governor Race: They predicted a closer race in Pennsylvania's gubernatorial contest, but Democrat Josh Shapiro won by a large margin over Republican Doug Mastriano, a far-right candidate who underperformed compared to expectations. Analysis: InsiderAdvantage, like other right-leaning firms, appeared to misread the electorate in states where abortion, democracy, and other issues resonated more with Democratic and independent voters than their models anticipated.
4. Susquehanna Polling & Research Misses: Susquehanna, a Pennsylvania-based firm that often leans toward conservative candidates, was notably off in the Pennsylvania Senate and gubernatorial races.
Pennsylvania Senate Race: They predicted a closer race between Fetterman and Oz than what ultimately occurred. Susquehanna's final polls showed Oz closing the gap significantly, but Fetterman ended up winning by a larger-than-expected margin. Pennsylvania Governor Race: Like many other right-leaning pollsters, they underestimated the margin of Shapiro's victory over Mastriano in the gubernatorial race. Analysis: Susquehanna's tendency to overestimate Republican performance in their home state of Pennsylvania, particularly among rural and conservative voters, led to predictions that were off the mark in 2022.
5. Big Data Poll Misses: Big Data Poll, another conservative-leaning firm, also overstated Republican chances in key races. They projected stronger Republican support in several Senate races, including Arizona and Pennsylvania, where the final results favored Democrats by larger margins.
Analysis: Like other right-leaning pollsters, Big Data Poll's likely voter models may have overestimated Republican turnout or underestimated the enthusiasm among Democratic voters motivated by issues like abortion and election integrity.
Common Themes in the Misses: Overestimation of Republican Turnout: These right-wing pollsters generally overestimated the enthusiasm and turnout of Republican voters, particularly in states with contentious Senate and gubernatorial races. Underestimation of Democratic and Independent Voters: Many of these polls failed to fully capture the surge in Democratic and independent voter turnout, especially among women, younger voters, and suburban voters motivated by the Dobbs decision, threats to democracy, and Trump-endorsed far-right candidates. Misreading of Key Issues: Abortion rights and the protection of democracy became central issues in the midterms, but many right-leaning pollsters didn’t adequately factor these issues into their likely voter models, which led to significant errors in forecasting. These polling errors, particularly from conservative-leaning firms, contributed to widespread expectations of a "red wave" that didn't come to pass, especially in the Senate and key gubernatorial races.
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:07:15 GMT -5
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:20:04 GMT -5
Kamalala needs a day off. Poor thing.
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Mynki
Member
Posts: 372
Member is Online
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Post by Mynki on Oct 22, 2024 13:23:38 GMT -5
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:26:35 GMT -5
His posted schedule today says your MSN article is full of fake news. “amid reports…”. lol
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:28:36 GMT -5
Feel the energy!!!!!!!
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 13:29:36 GMT -5
^ Your next Attorney General is sitting there on the right. I'm sure she'll hold no grudges.
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:30:46 GMT -5
lol
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 13:31:12 GMT -5
His posted schedule today says your MSN article is full of fake news. “amid reports…”. lol Well, it was scheduled for 2:00PM and he's MIA from MIA?
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:33:10 GMT -5
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:35:24 GMT -5
Watch your back BT. You did the same. Evidence is here.
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 13:40:57 GMT -5
Discovery is a bitch.
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:42:34 GMT -5
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 13:42:56 GMT -5
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:43:25 GMT -5
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:47:41 GMT -5
How many million of listeners? 10M? 20M? 50M?
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Post by biminitwisted on Oct 22, 2024 13:49:58 GMT -5
^ The more voters that hear the actual words that come out his facehole the better. It's why Kamala is actively encouraging voters to watch his rallies.
You think Arnold's giant cock will come up?
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Post by resinhead on Oct 22, 2024 13:54:52 GMT -5
Liz!
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