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Post by madm002 on Feb 20, 2024 14:51:51 GMT -5
Anybody keep up with small caps or track the Russell? I started moving some of my vast fortune (sarcasm) there awhile ago. It is a mean reversion investment, they have been down so long they have to eventually have a run. Same with equal weighted S and P
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 20, 2024 15:25:08 GMT -5
If rates come down, small caps should prosper.
The question is when.
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Post by madm002 on Feb 21, 2024 13:39:09 GMT -5
If rates come down, small caps should prosper. The question is when. That is the problem, and I do not see it any time soon.
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Post by nuevowavo on Feb 21, 2024 15:00:43 GMT -5
If rates come down, small caps should prosper. The question is when.
As long as the economy stays reasonably strong. But if rates are coming down in response to a slowing economy, maybe not. Did you know that 40% of companies in the Russell 2000 are unprofitable?
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 21, 2024 17:07:26 GMT -5
That's why they are small caps. The key is finding those that grow.
High interest rates kill small caps.
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Post by old member on Feb 22, 2024 15:58:27 GMT -5
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 23, 2024 8:03:28 GMT -5
"(Bloomberg) -- A Fidelity International money manager has sold the vast majority of US Treasuries from funds he oversees on expectations the world’s biggest economy still has room to expand." "Singapore-based George Efstathopoulos, who helps manage about $3 billion of income and growth strategies at Fidelity, sold the bulk of his 10-year and 30-year Treasuries holdings in December. He is now turning to assets that typically do well in times of good economic growth to boost returns." “We don’t expect sort of a recession anymore,” said Efstathopoulos. “The probability of no landing is still small, but it’s been increasing. If that increases much more, potentially we will not be talking about Fed cuts anymore” in 2024." "Efstathopoulos is among those cooling on Treasuries as the US economy’s resilience forces investors to rethink bets on interest-rate cuts. Some are going a step further, speculating the Federal Reserve’s next move may even be a hike, after the recent strong inflation and jobs reports." "Traders are now pricing under four quarter-point interest-rate cuts in 2024, down from wagers for 150 basis points of cuts this year starting March. Bonds are reflecting the swing in sentiment, with 10-year US yields advancing more than 40 basis points since the start of the year to 4.3%, as comments from Fed officials also reinforce expectations of higher-for-longer rates." "Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned on Thursday about the dangers of easing too much in response to easing price pressures, while Fed Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said “we still have some work to do” on inflation." "The US economy is showing “more signs of re-acceleration than it is of slowing down,” Efstathopoulos said, adding that “I wouldn’t be surprised in a couple of quarters down the road we end up seeing sort of manufacturing PMI in a more expansion sort of territory” in developed markets." "Data on Thursday reinforced his view as US jobless claims dropped to the lowest level in a month, underscoring the strength of the economy." "Some funds such as Jupiter Asset Management are taking a different view, opting to load up on Treasuries while seeing risks of an eventual hard landing after the Fed’s most aggressive tightening cycle in decades." finance.yahoo.com/news/fidelity-manager-dumps-nearly-treasuries-232545132.html
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 27, 2024 6:38:14 GMT -5
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett shared a moving tribute to his fallen friend and right-hand man Charlie Munger in his annual shareholder letter over the weekend. The Oracle of Omaha lauded Munger as the “architect” of Berkshire’s success, eulogizing the “abominable no-man” by discussing some of his favorite whipping posts—including his comparison of the modern stock market to a casino. “For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young,” Buffett wrote, adding that “though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school.” Buffett’s words of caution were definitely a throwback to some of Munger’s favorite lines. Throughout his more than 75-year career, Munger argued that there were two types of people who buy shares in the stock market: investors and speculators. The investors—who are, above all, disciplined, hard-working, and thoughtful when buying assets—were always Munger’s people. But the speculators—those who seek nothing more than a quick buck without care for the intrinsic value of what they’re buying—well, Munger really didn’t like them much. "They love gambling, and the trouble is, it's like taking heroin,” he said in an April 2022 interview with Berkshire Hathaway investment officer Todd Combs. “A certain percentage of people when they start just overdo it. It's that addictive. It's absolutely crazy, it's gone berserk. Civilization would have been a lot better without it." Like Munger, Buffett fears that too many modern investors have become entranced by speculative investing. Rather than digging into Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings to find the best possible business to invest in, too many investors, particularly young investors, are simply buying stocks that are trendy, hoping someone else will pay more for them a few months, days, or even hours down the line. finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-says-stock-market-212445057.html
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Post by whitebacon on Feb 27, 2024 7:09:35 GMT -5
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett shared a moving tribute to his fallen friend and right-hand man Charlie Munger in his annual shareholder letter over the weekend. The Oracle of Omaha lauded Munger as the “architect” of Berkshire’s success, eulogizing the “abominable no-man” by discussing some of his favorite whipping posts—including his comparison of the modern stock market to a casino. “For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young,” Buffett wrote, adding that “though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school.” Buffett’s words of caution were definitely a throwback to some of Munger’s favorite lines. Throughout his more than 75-year career, Munger argued that there were two types of people who buy shares in the stock market: investors and speculators. The investors—who are, above all, disciplined, hard-working, and thoughtful when buying assets—were always Munger’s people. But the speculators—those who seek nothing more than a quick buck without care for the intrinsic value of what they’re buying—well, Munger really didn’t like them much. "They love gambling, and the trouble is, it's like taking heroin,” he said in an April 2022 interview with Berkshire Hathaway investment officer Todd Combs. “A certain percentage of people when they start just overdo it. It's that addictive. It's absolutely crazy, it's gone berserk. Civilization would have been a lot better without it." Like Munger, Buffett fears that too many modern investors have become entranced by speculative investing. Rather than digging into Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings to find the best possible business to invest in, too many investors, particularly young investors, are simply buying stocks that are trendy, hoping someone else will pay more for them a few months, days, or even hours down the line. finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-says-stock-market-212445057.htmlMunger and Buffett, probably the best ever. Taught me most of what I know. Buy solid companies and hold them. Not exactly rocket science. May his soul rest in peace. A great man.
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Post by whitebacon on Feb 27, 2024 7:11:00 GMT -5
OOPS.......... "Lyft Inc. projected adjusted earnings as much as 11% higher than analysts’ estimates, and reported bookings ahead of expectations. And then there was the outlook for profitability: Margins, the ride-hailing provider said in an initial press release Tuesday, were set to expand this year by an eye-watering 500 basis points. Shares surged, jumping 67% in after-hours trading." "But the projection was off. Way off." "Less than an hour after issuing the statement, Lyft Chief Financial Officer Erin Brewer joined a call with analysts and said the company is actually expecting margins to expand by 50 basis points — not 500 — acknowledging, when asked by an analyst, that the press release was incorrect. A company spokesperson later attributed the mistake to a “clerical error,” and the company eventually corrected its statement and regulatory filings." "Shares almost immediately gave up gains. By the time premarket trading opened on Wednesday morning, its rally had pared to about 20%." "It’s a “black-eye moment” for Lyft, said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, “a debacle of epic proportions.” He said by email that he’d “never seen an error like this in my almost 25 years on the Street.” finance.yahoo.com/news/lyft-soars-outlook-tops-estimates-213140053.htmlIs today Wednesday? Already?
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 27, 2024 8:00:18 GMT -5
No. It's still Tuesday.
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Post by ferris1248 on Mar 8, 2024 9:22:41 GMT -5
"The US economy created more new jobs than expected in February, while an increase in the unemployment rate for the first time in four months and downward revisions to job growth in prior months suggested signs of some softening in the US labor market." "The US economy added 275,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February, significantly more additions than the 200,000 expected by economists. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 3.9% from 3.7% in January." "A revised 229,000 jobs were added in January, according to the report, down from the 353,000 initially reported." "The jobs report adds to the data the Federal Reserve will consider before making its next interest rate decision later this month." "Wages, a closely watched indicator of inflation and a gauge of how much leverage workers have in the labor market, increased 0.1% on a monthly basis and 4.3% over last year; economists had expected wages to rise 0.2% over last month and 4.3% over last year." "Some key metrics did decline, though. The labor force participation rate stayed flat at 62.5%, while the average weekly hours worked increased from 34.1 to 34.3." "The largest jobs increases in Friday's report were seen in healthcare which added 67,000 jobs in February. Meanwhile, government employment added 52,000 jobs." finance.yahoo.com/news/february-jobs-report-us-economy-adds-275000-jobs-unemployment-rate-hits-39-133253114.html
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 1, 2024 8:53:52 GMT -5
UPS takes over USPS contract from FedEx. UPS pays a pretty nice Forward Dividend & Yield 6.52 (4.39%) "(Reuters) -United Parcel Service will become the United States Postal Service's (USPS) primary air cargo provider, the company said on Monday, as rival FedEx announced an end to its more than 20-year partnership with the postal service provider." "The financial terms of the contract were not disclosed but UPS said the award was "significant." "USPS was the largest customer for FedEx's air-based Express segment, even as payments declined after the postal service shifted letters and packages from planes to more economical trucks." finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-become-united-states-postal-101557587.html
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 3, 2024 8:14:32 GMT -5
It's been a rough week. "US stock futures pointed to more losses on Wednesday, as investors looked to a coming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for clues to whether interest rates will stay higher for longer." "S&P 500 (^GSPC) futures slipped 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) futures held just below the flatline. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) led declines, down almost 0.4%, after the major gauges closed in a sea of red." "Stocks have drifted away from their strong start to the year as robust economic data undermined hopes for three Fed rate cuts. Investors have scaled back their bets to the point where they expect a smaller, later easing than policymakers have projected." "The focus is now on Powell, whose speech on the economic outlook later Wednesday will be weighed for clues to whether the Fed's June meeting will bring a policy pivot. Appearances by Michael Barr and other Fed officials will also be watched." finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-us-futures-drift-lower-as-faith-in-rate-cuts-fades-105325704.html
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Post by whitebacon on Apr 3, 2024 8:24:08 GMT -5
It's been a rough week. "US stock futures pointed to more losses on Wednesday, as investors looked to a coming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for clues to whether interest rates will stay higher for longer." "S&P 500 (^GSPC) futures slipped 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) futures held just below the flatline. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) led declines, down almost 0.4%, after the major gauges closed in a sea of red." "Stocks have drifted away from their strong start to the year as robust economic data undermined hopes for three Fed rate cuts. Investors have scaled back their bets to the point where they expect a smaller, later easing than policymakers have projected." "The focus is now on Powell, whose speech on the economic outlook later Wednesday will be weighed for clues to whether the Fed's June meeting will bring a policy pivot. Appearances by Michael Barr and other Fed officials will also be watched." finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-us-futures-drift-lower-as-faith-in-rate-cuts-fades-105325704.htmlHow many times have I told you? Quit watching TV. Sit on the sideline. Hold onto your winnings. No one can predict the upside or the downside. I've lost enough to learn. I ain't coming to 40 degree GA to slap some sense into you. And I know you hate me. So don't remind me.
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 3, 2024 8:38:33 GMT -5
I watch the market every day. But not to fret over my investments. I just like watching the market and what causes it to do the things it does. It's entertaining, a microcosm of human nature. I'm probably as conservative as they come with most of my investments being CD ladders, annuities, structured notes. Probably about 65% right now. If they don't cut rates this year, I'll continue on that path when several CDs mature this year. My stash is pretty secure. And you know I love you.
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Post by whitebacon on Apr 3, 2024 8:48:26 GMT -5
Smartest thing I did, when I left, was putting my mother, sister, and niece in charge. They're scared of a shadow, but don't cross any of them.
I'm eternally grateful. Told you a zillion times, I like the Peter Lynch theory. If the new Tampax factory is being built, I'm buying tampons.
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 3, 2024 8:53:47 GMT -5
Smartest thing I did, when I left, was putting my mother, sister, and niece in charge. They're scared of a shadow, but don't cross any of them. I'm eternally grateful. Told you a zillion times, I like the Peter Lynch theory. If the new Tampax factory is being built, I'm buying tampons. I heard that.
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Post by OhMy on Apr 5, 2024 13:21:45 GMT -5
Is anyone investing in AI stocks?
I know NVidia is killing it, anybody have any AI stocks other than NVDA?
I was looking at some AI ETF's but never landed on one.
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Post by nuevowavo on Apr 5, 2024 13:28:01 GMT -5
Our investment advisor is selling Nvidia and other AI-relateds and buying energy - Exxon, Chevron, etc.
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Post by whitebacon on Apr 5, 2024 13:54:44 GMT -5
Is anyone investing in AI stocks? I know NVidia is killing it, anybody have any AI stocks other than NVDA? I was looking at some AI ETF's but never landed on one. I sold everything two weeks ago, except my core, apple and cisco. Cleared 700% on nvdia. Wouldn't go there again. I can't spend it anyway. I would stay away from anything you don't understand clearly. Repeat.....stay away from anything you don't understand clearly.
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 5, 2024 14:06:10 GMT -5
Our investment advisor is selling Nvidia and other AI-relateds and buying energy - Exxon, Chevron, etc. With the exception of Apple and Google I've been out for a while. Been holding CTRA, CEG, IEO and TTE for a while. What about utilities?
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Post by OhMy on Apr 5, 2024 14:22:28 GMT -5
Is anyone investing in AI stocks? I know NVidia is killing it, anybody have any AI stocks other than NVDA? I was looking at some AI ETF's but never landed on one. I sold everything two weeks ago, except my core, apple and cisco. Cleared 700% on nvdia. Wouldn't go there again. I can't spend it anyway. I would stay away from anything you don't understand clearly. Repeat.....stay away from anything you don't understand clearly. I do not hold NVDA. I did, but I cashed out. I do understand AI, I have worked in the tech sector for 30 years. I am thinking of just buying some more Amazon and banking on their AWS AI.
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 5, 2024 14:25:55 GMT -5
I think OhMy has the right idea. Whether it's Amazon or some other big tech player, they seem to offer more stability and will ride the AI wave with less risk.
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Post by whitebacon on Apr 5, 2024 14:53:56 GMT -5
I do not hold NVDA. I did, but I cashed out. I do understand AI, I have worked in the tech sector for 30 years. I am thinking of just buying some more Amazon and banking on their AWS AI. You know me. I'm simple. You know where I live. We don't move the needle. You seem to know what's up. I don't any more. The only thing I know, is I stay away from things I don't understand . 2008, I had some cash. My then girlfriend had some cash. We loaded up on apple. Eight figures. We still own it today, although we are long broken up.$400 million each. Roughly. I read the stupid book when I was like 30. The Peter Lynch book. My mother, my aunt, and my sister are all wealthy. They don't let me out of bed without a permission slip. Now, no one will believe this, but I bought CSCO in 1992. True effing story.
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Post by whitebacon on Apr 5, 2024 14:57:49 GMT -5
I think OhMy has the right idea. Whether it's Amazon or some other big tech player, they seem to offer more stability and will ride the AI wave with less risk. Stay conservative .......you know better
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Post by madm002 on Apr 5, 2024 15:02:47 GMT -5
I do not hold NVDA. I did, but I cashed out. I do understand AI, I have worked in the tech sector for 30 years. I am thinking of just buying some more Amazon and banking on their AWS AI. You know me. I'm simple. You know where I live. We don't move the needle. You seem to know what's up. I don't any more. The only thing I know, is I stay away from things I don't understand . 2008, I had some cash. My then girlfriend had some cash. We loaded up on apple. Eight figures. We still own it today, although we are long broken up.$400 million each. Roughly. I read the stupid book when I was like 30. The Peter Lynch book. My mother, my aunt, and my sister are all wealthy. They don't let me out of bed without a permission slip. Now, no one will believe this, but I bought CSCO in 1992. True effing story. You are my hero. I like to buy and hold forever or unless the story is broke. Alot of 4X and 5X but no the Apple story. I do have some Nvidia,not selling but will probably take my cost basis out after Dec 31. This tax year is complicated.
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Post by whitebacon on Apr 5, 2024 15:10:36 GMT -5
Do not follow my investing or girlfriend advice. Ever.
Fishing maybe.
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Post by whitebacon on Apr 5, 2024 15:19:57 GMT -5
I just fish now. Of course I think I'm the best. I can't process money. No one catches a super grand slam. Every day. My serious problems are women. They lie.
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Post by conchydong on Apr 5, 2024 15:32:57 GMT -5
I just fish now. Of course I think I'm the best. I can't process money. No one catches a super grand slam. Every day. My serious problems are women. They lie. David, I know it’s hard to resist young women but as you get older you may want to consider a more mature woman that is looking for stability instead of material things. All women want something just like guys want something too out of the relationship. I just like having someone that loves me. Takes care of me when I’m sick and I do the same for her when she’s sick. Getting old is not easy and it’s nice to have some stability in your life.
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