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Post by richm on Sept 1, 2024 18:39:19 GMT -5
Just rolled a 13 month at 5.75% for a 7 month at 4.5%. They are coming down and this will be the last I do for a while, I suspect. Most of the ones 12/13 months or longer are already below 4%. I've got some in '25 at 5% or so and a couple in '27 at 4.6% or so. Trying to decide if i want a 20k 5 yr 4.7%. If the market tanks i’ll br happy, if not i wont. Aaaugh.
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Post by ferris1248 on Sept 2, 2024 10:22:02 GMT -5
5 yr at 4.7 is pretty good right now. I doubt we'll see that a week or so from now.
If you don't need the money in that time frame, do it. On the other hand there are some MMs out there still in the 3/3.5 range and gives you more flexibility.
I'm sitting on my cash for now. What's not in CDs is in a saving account/MM at 3% and 2.5% respectfully. That's my reserve for emergencies. There's also enough there to get into treasuries after the first of the year. My guy seems to think Treasuries will be attractive in Feb/Mar. 25.
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Post by nuevowavo on Sept 2, 2024 13:51:16 GMT -5
Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund® – Investor Shares (SWVXX) has a 7 day yield of 5.12% That will probably drop after the September rate cut, but only roughly by the amount of the cut in the Fed Funds rate. I'm not locking in anything.
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Post by ferris1248 on Sept 3, 2024 10:50:06 GMT -5
Are we having fun yet? Going to be a rocky month.
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Post by madm002 on Sept 3, 2024 11:38:38 GMT -5
This is an ugly day my friend. I told Ruthie, I have in cash what we need for the next year, lets not look at the market for a few months.
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Post by nuevowavo on Sept 3, 2024 14:33:39 GMT -5
Totally psycho market, kneejerking to the last bit of data. Wait 'till Friday - August non-farm payroll.
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Post by whitebacon on Sept 3, 2024 14:44:17 GMT -5
Totally psycho market, kneejerking to the last bit of data. Wait 'till Friday - August non-farm payroll. I got taken out of 7 positions on call contracts, all in the black. Might not buy them back. What does your gut tell you? Thanks in advance.
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Post by nuevowavo on Sept 3, 2024 14:50:43 GMT -5
Totally psycho market, kneejerking to the last bit of data. Wait 'till Friday - August non-farm payroll. I got taken out of 7 positions on call contracts, all in the black. Might not buy them back. What does your gut tell you? Thanks in advance.
I'm hanging in there. Wouldn't be surprised to see as much as 10% pullback, though. September sucks.
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Post by whitebacon on Sept 3, 2024 15:09:47 GMT -5
I got taken out of 7 positions on call contracts, all in the black. Might not buy them back. What does your gut tell you? Thanks in advance.
I'm hanging in there. Wouldn't be surprised to see as much as 10% pullback, though. September sucks.
Thank you sir. I'm thinking like you.
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Post by madm002 on Sept 4, 2024 8:12:33 GMT -5
I am not much of a chart guy, but one prominent chartist (for me charting is like reading goat entrails, but the guy has a really strong record lately) said it was going to be really rough the first 2 to 3 weeks in September. I raised some cash in August so lets see if it turns around. I think we have a ways to go before we see the bottom. Bad time to own much tech.
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Post by ferris1248 on Sept 4, 2024 8:24:54 GMT -5
The VIX "Thursday marks the one-month anniversary of Aug. 5's "yen shock" — a mini-market panic that quickly spread throughout global markets after beginning in Japan the Monday following the July jobs report." "The Nikkei stock index (^N225) hemorrhaged 12% that Monday — its biggest one-day drop since 1987 — while the S&P 500 plummeted 3%. The VIX Volatility Index (^VIX) spiked to 65, the third-highest level on record." "But almost as soon as the selling was over that morning, the eye-popping recovery began, which could be why there's not even a compelling, agreed-upon name for the event. By midday in the US on that fateful Monday, the VIX had already fallen to 30 — its biggest intraday crash on record." "By mid-August, US stocks had already erased the losses. But this roller-coaster ride of volatility highlights some critical misconceptions about the VIX. And historical price action surrounding August shocks suggests that stocks are not in the clear just yet." "The VIX has long been dubbed the “fear gauge” by financial media (including yours truly), but this moniker oversimplifies its function. As Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, explained on a recent episode of Stocks in Translation, “[The] VIX is not a fear gauge. It plays one on TV.” "The VIX measures the market's expectation of S&P 500 (^GSPC) volatility over the next 30 days, as it is calculated from options on the benchmark. It doesn’t account for actual fear but rather reflects the market's best estimate of future volatility, which often coincides with market fear, or panic." "According to Sosnick, “VIX is the best proxy for the demand for [institutional] hedging protection because it is really the simplest way to do a short, quick hedge on a portfolio.” "Institutional and retail investors alike can tap deep and liquid markets for VIX futures and ETFs — along with options on those instruments. (But the VIX itself is an index and does not actually trade, much like the S&P 500.)" "Investors might assume that a low VIX means markets are stable and not in need of hedging. But a low VIX is an affordable VIX. "Buy protection when you can, not when you must," goes the Wall Street adage. Thinking back to the Monday market meltdown with hindsight, the right play was to sell the VIX by midday — by either shorting or covering prior long bets. The BofA Data Analytics team has a historical warning for investors who have already moved past last month's shock." "August fragility leads fall volatility (and it's not priced in)," the team wrote in a note to investors." "The team also noted that from a historical perspective, the VIX tends to rise from August through October, which can be bearish for stocks." finance.yahoo.com/news/what-investors-are-getting-wrong-about-the-vix-right-now-100043618.html
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Post by ferris1248 on Sept 4, 2024 8:27:25 GMT -5
I am not much of a chart guy, but one prominent chartist (for me charting is like reading goat entrails, but the guy has a really strong record lately) said it was going to be really rough the first 2 to 3 weeks in September. I raised some cash in October so lets see if it turns around. I think we have a ways to go before we see the bottom. Bad time to own much tech. Historically, September always sucks.
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Post by nuevowavo on Sept 4, 2024 14:38:33 GMT -5
The job openings report (JOLTS) came in weaker than expected.The Fed pays close attention to it - is 50 bps back on the table?
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Post by gardawg on Sept 4, 2024 14:43:58 GMT -5
Isn't there usually a sell off before a Presidential election.
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Post by richm on Sept 4, 2024 14:45:58 GMT -5
Just drop 25-30% already and let us get back in.
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